Super Bowl LVIII will be held on Sunday, Feb.11, at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. Many Jesuit students will be tuning in as the game will feature a familiar matchup: Kyle Shanahan’s San Francisco 49ers will face off against Andy Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs. The two teams played each other in Super Bowl LIV four years ago, where the Chiefs won 31-20 thanks to a dominant final 8 minutes where they outscored the 49ers 21-0.

Both teams have retained several of their key players from that championship game, as well as the same head coaches. For Reid and the Chiefs, this game marks their chance to become the first team to win back-to-back super bowls since the New England Patriots in 2004 and 2005, and for the 49ers, this game is a chance for them to win their first Super Bowl since 1994.

Coming into this game, both teams seem to be evenly matched. The 49ers are loaded with stars on offense and defense, with nine Pro Bowlers and 12 Pro Bowl alternates, and the team has looked like one of the best in the league all season. This team’s strength is in its offense. MVP Finalist running back Christian McCaffery has been undoubtedly the best at his position this season, fueling the 49ers’ third ranked rushing offense. Additionally, MVP Finalist and second-year quarterback Brock Purdy has a phenomenal group of receivers and a great tight end in George Kittle that make up the fourth best passing offense in the league. 

Defensively, however, things are different. Despite having stars such as linebacker Fred Warner and defensive end Nick Bosa, the 49ers defense has shown its weaknesses – especially in the playoffs. Their passing defense ranks middle of the pack at best, and the running defense, while being one of the best in the regular season, has allowed substantially more yards to opposing teams in the playoffs. The struggling defense has resulted in the 49ers falling behind in both of their playoff games, and the offense might not be enough to bring them back against the Chiefs.

The Chiefs, in a way, are the complete opposite of the 49ers. They haven’t consistently won throughout the season, and they overall have fewer big names than the 49ers. The names that they do have, however, are big: quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, and defensive tackle Chris Jones are all arguably the best players at their positions. 

The Chiefs offense hasn’t looked as good as it has in previous years, partly because they lack a consistent wide receiver group, and Kelce seems to have slowed down in his 11th season. However, Kelce has looked revitalized in the playoffs (23 catches for 262 yards and 3 touchdowns), and the rest of the Chiefs offense should be fine with Mahomes at the helm. 

The greatest strength of the Chiefs this season has been their defense. Defensive Coordinator Steve Spagnulo has created the second best defense in total yards allowed, also because of absolute luck this season, and nothing has changed in the playoffs. This defense, especially the pass defense, will allow the Chiefs to keep the 49ers in check if the Chiefs manage to pull away early.

There are two big factors that will determine the outcome of this game. The first is whether the Chiefs will be able to contain McCaffery. Despite the Chiefs’ outstanding defense, McCaffery has the talent and the explosiveness to make big plays and wreak havoc for the Chiefs in a hurry. The Chief’s secondary will likely keep the 49ers passing offense in check; McCaffery is the X-factor. The next is whether the 49ers will be able to stop the Chiefs from converting on third downs. The 49ers have allowed teams to convert on 40.9 % of third downs, which places them 23rd in the league in this category. That 40.9% has ballooned to 52.0% in the playoffs, and with Mahomes’ ability to convert in clutch situations, the 49ers may have a tough time stopping the Chiefs from continuing downfield.

Ultimately, I predict that the Chiefs will win. The 49ers cannot afford to fall behind at any time; the experience of the Chiefs combined with their stellar passing defense will make it very difficult for the 49ers to come back. On the other hand, the Chiefs can afford to fall behind. Mahomes has led some of the greatest comebacks in recent history, and he and Kelce can easily take advantage of the 49er’s lackluster secondary if given the chance. The Chiefs will control this game, and they will win their third Super Bowl in five years.